Liberals shouldn't gloat

Good afternoon, StÉphane Dion: we'd like to congratulate your Liberal Party on winning three of four byelections Monday.

But we'd like to suggest a muted tone for this week's celebrations.

Let's start with that fourth seat: certainly Dion must be wondering what may have been had he not been heavy-handed with the nomination process in the riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River. Could the Grits have gone four-for-four? A win there would certainly have given the slumping centrists even more grist for the general election mill.

But the decisive loss in northern Saskatchewan, combined with a tight race in typically strong Liberal riding of Vancouver-Quadra must dent any zeal for toppling the minority Conservative government.

Most pundits suggest that a Liberal loss in Vancouver-Quadra would have been devastating for Dion's flagging leadership: but a one-percentage-point margin victory is almost as bad.

Naturally, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May trumpeted the 13-15 per cent of voters turning to the Greens in Vancouver and Toronto ridings as a sign of emerging viability. However, past history, particularly in B.C., suggests that the Green vote is more of a "protest" vote that will disappear if viable mainstream alternatives are present.

In this case, arguments can also be made that the Green Party votes Monday were a sign that voters fearful of the right-wing Conservatives aren't confident in the centre-of-the-road Liberals or the shaky leadership and lack of direction of the NDP.

Additionally, byelections are not general elections: Monday night offered incomplete glimpses of voter sentiment, and those glimpses do not paint a complete nor definitive picture of where the Canadian public really stands.

Yes, Dion can celebrate three new members in Opposition today. But it would be wise if he considered Monday's results as less of a sweeping mandate for toppling the government and more as a sign of continued uncertainty.