Prince Albert can expect fairly average weather patterns for the area this autumn, according to an expert from the Weather Network.
© Photo illustration by Matt Gardner
Prince Albert should see fairly normal weather patterns this autumn, according to a Weather Network meteorologist.
Meteorologist Dayna Vettese said the city would likely see typical temperatures and precipitation levels for this time of year in the coming months.
“What we’re looking at for the fall months of September, October, November for the Prince Albert area is temperatures and precipitation to both be fairly near normal,” Vettese said.
“So we’re going to see that continuation of what we saw this summer where we have a couple of weeks of warm weather, a couple of weeks of cool weather, and it’ll alternate like that because of the blocking pattern we’re anticipating to keep setting up throughout the fall months.”
Normally in September, Prince Albert experiences daytime highs in the high teens. Temperatures drop to the high single digits by October, and by November the average daytime high will be between 0 and -2 C.
While predicting the onset of snow at this juncture is difficult (the Weather Network generally releases its winter outlook in late November), Vettese noted that P.A. has a climate normal of 1.5 centimetres of snow in September.
“Generally we don’t really see things starting to stick around a little bit until the end of October, even into November … November is probably when we’re at the greatest risk of seeing snow sticking around,” she said.
“As for flurries coming out of the sky, I think it’d be hard-pressed in September, October. Towards the end we start to become fair game for flurries and light snowfalls, and then by November it looks like snow sticking around is a possibility.”
The relatively normal precipitation levels expected this fall contrast with heavy summer rains that often led to flooding issues.
June was a particularly wet month in the P.A. area -- with double the average amount of rainfall for that time frame -- and July also saw high rain levels. Despite a comparatively dry August, average precipitation for the summer as a whole remained higher than normal.
Vettese said that much of the rainfall in Prince Albert arrived in short, intense bursts.
What we’re looking at for the fall months of September, October, November for the Prince Albert area is temperatures and precipitation to both be fairly near normal. Dayna Vettese
“We actually saw quite a bit of thunderstorm activity and any one individual thunderstorm can drop quite a bit of rain,” she said. “That’s where we saw a lot of our rainfall in the Prince Albert area come from was these heavy rainfalls due to thunderstorms.”
Though the city was put on tornado watch at least one point during the summer, Vettese indicated that the risk of severe thunderstorms with tornados associated is far higher during periods of high heat and humidity such as July and August.
“You can’t rule out the risk of severe storms, especially in September,” she said. “But by October-November, we start to see that risk die off and it becomes more of a winter setup.
“I would say through September, there is still the risk there for severe storms, but less so than what we see in the summertime.”
Compared to expected temperatures in Prince Albert, coastal areas in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada are both looking at above-average temperatures for the fall months, creating an elevated risk of hurricane formation.
Though this year has seen an abundance of extreme weather events, Vettese hesitated to attribute the effects to climate change, pointing out that one would need to average out data over a period of decades to draw conclusions in that regard.
“Looking at this summer, people think that maybe we’ve had a lot more severe weather. But really, we’re actually fairly average for severe weather,” she said.
“It’s just I think more people are aware of it, especially after the devastating flooding in Alberta, the flooding in Toronto and tornados last summer in Saskatchewan … It’s not necessarily that there’s more of it, it’s just we’re more aware of it and everyone’s got access to social media as well as cellphones, taking pictures and that sort of thing.”